How to beat God?

Is there any way to defeat Tadej Pogacar

Was Sisyphus happy? So famously asked French writer and philosopher Albert Camus. On the first rest day of this year’s Tour de France, we can all ponder a different question: Are Visma–Lease a Bike happy?

The team have ridden an almost flawless first week—breaking apart the peloton on stage one, keeping Jonas Vingegaard out of danger, and never losing Tadej Pogacar’s wheel.

Despite this, the heavy toll of a disappointing time trial and the metronomic tick of bonus seconds into Pogacar’s coffers means their leader is 1 minute and 17 seconds behind the omnipotent Slovenian. All this, before the great peaks of the Pyrenees begin to form the horizon.

Worse still, Pogacar’s team appears weaker by the day. His super-domestique João Almeida crashed out, and another mountain lieutenant, Pavel Sivakov, looked weak - possibly due to illness - on stage 10.

Visma have been highly effective at isolating Pogacar from his teammates, and this should be even easier in the high mountains. The challenge is that while they may succeed in throwing Matteo Jorgensen up the road, dropping Pogacar with Jonas Vingegaard seems for now impossible.

We’ve yet to see evidence that Vingegaard can match Pogacar’s watts per kilo from last year—easily the greatest ever recorded. Even if the battle in the Pyrenees is closer than in 2024, limiting their losses may still be the best-case scenario for Visma if it becomes a pure watts test.

Their strategy is clearly one of constant pressure—in every crosswind, every breakaway, and every mountain. The hope is that one day, Pogacar has an off day or makes a rare mistake. Visma have shown they can insert riders into breakaways at will, but in the mountains, Pogacar only needs to follow Vingegaard’s wheel.

Unfortunately for Visma, Pogacar is almost otherworldly in his ability to sense danger and position himself. He hasn’t missed an important echelon in five years and is among the best in the peloton at surfing wheels. His rare crashes have come after extreme efforts - such as this year’s Paris–Roubaix or the descent of the Col des Spandelles in 2022.

It’s possible Visma will test him again on descents after launching multiple attacks on a climb. They tried a similar tactic in the Dauphiné, which prompted Pogacar to voice his concerns to the media.

Feeding remains the smallest of chinks in Pogacar’s armour—the cause of his crack in last year’s Tour. There has been friction between UAE and Visma during stricter feeding zones this year. In chaotic race situations, this will be something to keep in mind.

But what Visma really need is help. A rider like Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull Bora) slipping into a dangerous break on a mountain stage could force UAE to chase all day with a depleted squad. To bring Pogacar into crisis, Visma need other teams to profit from the chaos they create.

Visma’s strategic tenet, designed by Head of Strategy Patrick Broe, is the grand coup. Based on a “tight aggressive” poker strategy, it hinges on one big move - not gaining seconds every day, but minutes in one. (You can read more about this here)

This year, that move likely comes on stage 14 to Superbagnères, with brutally hard pacing in an effort to crack Pogacar as in 2022 and 2023. Sadly for Visma, high-mountain, high-exertion days are no longer Pogacar’s kryptonite since he changed trainers last year.

Still, they have to try. Last year’s strategy may have failed because of the long valleys in the Ariège, which allowed Pogacar and the GC group time to recover before the Plateau de Beille. This year, with a stronger team there should be less than 10 riders in the GC group at the foot of the final climb above Luchon.

Visma were criticised by some for their unorthodox and sometimes confusing attacks on stage 10. But it’s worth remembering they are racing against perhaps the greatest cyclist of all time. Pogacar has Van Aert’s watts and weighs just 64 kilograms. Against such an athlete - probably the greatest of the century - constant pressure is the only option. They must hope for one moment of weakness, or misfortune.

The eternal punishment of racing against Pogacar is that even if Visma ride the perfect race, they will probably still lose. Their only hope lies in continuing to attack the Slovenian phenomenon and his team, as the Spanish say Hay Tour.

As the first rest day draws to a close, we must imagine Visma–Lease a Bike as happy.

If you enjoyed this please read this article on Cycling’s tactical revolution including an interview with Visma’s head of strategy Patrick Broe